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Mexico: The Death of a Cartel Leader
July 30, 2010 | 1636 GMT
 [image: Mexico: The Death of a Cartel Leader]
OMAR TORRES/AFP/Getty Images
Sinaloa Federation No. 3 Ignacio �El Nacho� Coronel Villarreal
 Summary

Members of the Mexican military killed Sinaloa Federation No. 3, Ignacio �El
Nacho� Coronel Villarreal, in a raid on a safe house in the suburbs of
Guadalajara, Jalisco state, the evening of July 29. A strong force in
Mexican drug trafficking since the late 1980s, Coronel will be difficult to
replace in terms of leadership, skill and experience. While his death
represents a significant win for the government, it could well spark more
violence as other drug trafficking organizations seek to fill the vacuum.
Analysis

The No. 3 figure in Mexico�s Sinaloa drug trafficking organization, Ignacio
�El Nacho� Coronel Villarreal, was killed in a government raid on two
suspected Sinaloa safe houses in the wealthy Guadalajara suburb of Zapopan,
Jalisco state, July 29.
 Related Special Topic Page

   - Tracking Mexico�s Drug
Cartels<http://www.stratfor.com/theme/tracking_mexicos_drug_cartels?fn=6116829449>

 Along with the December 2009 death of Arturo Beltran Leyva, El Nacho�s
demise marks the second high-profile death of a senior drug cartel leader
since Mexican President Felipe Calderon launched an offensive against the
country�s drug trafficking organizations in December 2006. His elimination
gives a much-needed boost to the Mexican government�s counternarcotics
efforts as organized crime-related violence continues to increase throughout
the country. Moreover, as a strong force in the Mexican drug trafficking
scene and an integral part of the Sinaloa Federation�s leadership and
operations, El Nacho will be difficult for Sinaloa to replace.

 [image: Mexico: The Death of a Cartel Leader]
(click here to enlarge image)
 <http://web.stratfor.com/images/latinamerica/map/7-30-10-Mexico_Guadalajara_800.jpg?fn=3316829419>

The raid on the two houses involved 150 troops from the Mexican army
supported by two helicopters and various armored personnel carriers. El
Nacho reportedly was located in the first house accompanied only by one of
his top lieutenants, Iran Francisco Quinones Gastelum. Coronel reportedly
opened fire on the troops with a handgun when they stormed the house,
killing the point man on the entry team and wounding the second before two
rounds struck El Nacho in the upper chest, killing him instantly. Quinones
reportedly surrendered to Mexican troops immediately after El Nacho was
shot. Mexican troops then discovered suitcases of cash and jewelry
throughout the residence.

The operation to take down the Sinaloa capo resulted from several months of
independent intelligence work by the military intelligence unit of the
Mexican Defense department (known by its Spanish acronym, SEDENA). This
operation was vastly different from the Mexican naval operation that saw the
death of Beltran Leyva Organization kingpin Arturo Beltran
Leyva<http://www.stratfor.com/node/150810/analysis/20091217_mexico_cartel_leaders_death_and_violence_ahead?fn=9116829441>,
in that the Mexican army rapidly acquired tactical control of the situation
due to lack of resources on the part of Coronel. Coronel had been known for
not travelling with an entourage of bodyguards, instead seeking to avoid
attention by blending into the Guadalajara metro area.

He had been a dominant force on the Mexican drug trafficking scene since the
late 1980s, having begun his trafficking career working for Amado Carrillo
Fuentes and the Juarez cartel. After the death of Carrillo Fuentes in 1997,
El Nacho joined the Sinaloa Federation in the early 2000s. He worked under
Sinaloa leader Joaquin �El Chapo� Guzman Loera and Sinaloa No. 2, Ismael �El
Mayo� Zambada Garcia. El Nacho controlled drug trafficking operations for
the Sinaloa Federation along the Pacific coast of Mexico from Acapulco,
Guerrero state, to Jalisco and Colima states. In addition to his logistical
control of the region for the Sinaloa Federation, Coronel also headed the
organization�s production and trafficking of massive quantities of
methamphetamine (aka meth, cristal or ice due to its clear, crystal-like
appearance), which led to his other nickname, the �King of Ice.�

His leadership in the Sinaloa Federation and some 20-plus years navigating
the Latin American drug underworld will be extremely difficult to replicate,
something compounded by the arrest of his top lieutenant, Quinones. The
hierarchal structure of the Sinaloa Federation means someone will be
appointed to take his place in the organization, likely someone within El
Nacho�s trafficking organization familiar with local and regional contacts
as well as the organization�s operations � not someone from the broader
Sinaloa Federation.

El Nacho�s death, a significant victory for the Mexican government, comes at
a time of intensified domestic criticism of the country�s strategy in the
war against the cartels � even from former Cabinet ministers � and at a time
when violence has reached all-time highs. The glow, however, is likely to be
short-lived. As the Sinaloa Federation scrambles to regroup, other
organizations will undoubtedly seek to challenge its dominance in the
region, such as the Beltran Leyva Organization and Los Zetas. This could
well lead to another spike in violence in an already violent region of the
country.

-- 
roger w
 From Proverbs:
Under three things the earth trembles, under four it cannot bear up: a
servant who becomes king ...
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